"Fecemi la Divina Potestate,

La somma Sapienza e 'l Primo Amore."

Deny me that faith, and if I am to forego all looking before and after; if I am to shut myself up with the everlasting riddle of this universe, having no other occupation than to observe the relations between "my first," "my second," "my third," "my whole," carefully abstaining from the word itself, I tell you that two pennyworth of gin will give me an easier and pleasanter anasthesia than all your Positive Philosophy.'" (No. VII. p. 43.)

We have no fear of any extensive religious insensibility from the influence of the Positive Philosophy. There is a thirst in human nature which is not reached by the flat and bitter waters of such a Lethe; and which will take men, when its first delusive sleep is over, to purer and perennial fountains. We have a much more fatal indifference to apprehend from the spreading habit of insincere profession and uneasy acquiescence than from any exceptional boldness of honest disbelief. The crisis which is calling forth these Tracts is a most serious one; and, with the partial exception of their authors, no one is prepared to meet it with any appreciation of its real significance. The publication and immense diffusion of the Essays and Reviews means this, that the intellectual part of English Society is in revolt against the received form of Christianity, and snatching at the hope of something truer and deeper. The fact, indeed, has long ceased to be a secret. The whole tone of the current literature, the artificial separation of religious books into a class by themselves,-the decent reticence or ill-concealed contempt of public writers and political men,—the increasing refusal of an ecclesiastical career by Academic students of highest promise, the eager welcome of such volumes as Frederick Robertson's by educated people who will read no other theology, --are unmistakable symptoms of alienation from the recognised standards of belief. To the ripest mind and character of this age, the creeds speak a foreign language and reach no home within. The studious and learned have come to know that the Scriptures, though the richest sources of spiritual light, cannot be sustained in the oracular position which has been assigned to them. The whole theory of life,-silently felt rather than deliberately thought,-has irrevocably changed; consecrating this world, disenchanting the other of a thousand terrors; softening every curse, deepening every trust; blending the colours of nature and of grace; and finding the mysteries of eternity already present at every hour of time. No one, we are persuaded, can associate habitually with those classes whose mental and moral habitudes are the surest augury of our social future, without a profound conviction that the dogmatic Protestantism

of the 16th century is fast dying out of the life of the 19th. And the ominous peculiarity is this, that it is apparently dying a natural death, without violence, without conspiracy, without ill-will,-nay, amid the embraces and the tears of those from whose hearts it is torn, and whose childhood it nurtured. To charge this class-which grows in the atmosphere of letters, science, and moral refinement-with any wilful alienation,with the offences of "impiety" and "infidelity" so ready on the ecclesiastic tongue,-is a futile injury. Amid the decay of formulated doctrine among them, a true reverence, we believe, prevailingly remains for the great moral and spiritual characteristics of the Christian faith, and an open susceptibility to any Divine light that goes home to the veracities of thought and conscience. Is this state of things to have no meaning and give no warning? Are those who, like the authors of Essays and Reviews, recognise it and try to disengage the imperishable spirit from the transitory form of faith, to be refuted by Canon Law, and removed from a Church which has no room for living thought? Then it will be understood that the Church of the Nation excommunicates the Intellect of the Nation, and is content to rest on the Squirarchy, the Farmers, and a portion of the Tradesmen, relying on its social stability and not on its spiritual power. Such a severance we cannot but regard as degrading while it lasts and fatal in its end. The Religion which cannot encompass and vivify the whole of life, glorifying its thought, refining its art, sweetening its poetry, as well as ordering its affections and ennobling its action, is no longer the true expression of Him without whom nothing is; and in losing its transcendency, parts with its essence and abdicates its power.

ART. IX.-IS COTTON KING?

Neill Brothers and Co.'s Circular. Manchester, August 21, 1861. THE supply of cotton, on which so important a branch of our industry depends, is jeopardised to a greater or less degree by the deplorable civil war which now desolates America. So much alarm is felt at the prospect of a cotton-famine, and so many suggestions have been made for averting or mitigating the imminent calamity, that it is desirable to ascertain how far the fears entertained are excessive, and how far the remedies proposed are applicable and effective. There can be no doubt that the matter is a very serious one, not only for cotton-spinners and importers, but for the hundreds of thousands, not to say millions, of working men and women whose daily bread is threatened by the crisis; and not only for them, but for the

Government, on which devolves the difficult task of maintaining peace and order in periods of severe distress; and not only for the Government, but for every class and denomination of Englishmen, who cannot fail to suffer when the masses are unemployed, and who will be called upon both to sympathise in their privations, and to sacrifice much for their relief. We must therefore devote a few pages to a brief statement of the real facts of the case; in which, without making light of what is an unquestionable danger, we shall endeavour to reduce the nebulous terror to definite outlines, and to its true dimensions. We shall speak in round numbers and in general terms, avoiding all elaborate figures and all tedious and technical details.

In the infancy of the cotton-trade, we drew our raw material chiefly from the West Indies and Asia. During the last fifty years, however, by far the largest portion, and an increasing portion, of our supply has come from the United States. Brazil sends us some; Egypt sends us some; India sends us a great deal; but America usually furnishes 75 per cent of our aggregate consumption. We are now threatened with the entire withholding of this large proportion. It is grown exclusively in the seceding States, whose ports are now blockaded; and the Federalists declare that not a bale shall be exported, if their utmost vigilance can prevent its shipment. Under these circumstances, we have two inquiries to make:—first, What shall we do if we really receive no cotton from America? and, secondly, What probability is there that we really shall receive none? Let us take the first question to begin with, and face the worst that can befall us.

The quantity we require to enable all our mills to work full time is about two millions and a quarter of bales. As soon as it becomes apparent or probable that America will send us little or none (and the possibility at least of such a catastrophe has now made its way to most minds), all other countries may be expected to strain their utmost powers to send us as much as they can gather. The advance of price and the consequent action of enterprising merchants will probably insure this. How much, then, can the other cotton-growing countries of the world export? Certainly, at least as much as they ever have done in their most productive and in our most necessitous years. Now the most they have ever done for us is this:

There is no chance of our being able to draw much more from the first three quarters than we did in the years quoted above, when a partial failure in the American crop stimulated them to their best exertions. But we know that India can, on an emergency, send us much more than she did then-much more than she has ever done yet. She is known to grow an enormous quantity every year; part of which is sent to China, part to Europe; but far the largest portion is consumed by the native manufacturers. The entire amount produced is variously estimated by the most qualified authorities at from two millions to seven millions of bales. Nothing definite, however, is actually known. But we may fairly assume that the average Indian is at least equal to the average American crop, which now reaches from four to five millions of bales a year. Thus much is grown": how much of it can we get?

The most careful inquiry into the question does not enable us to do more than guess. It is purely a question of price and roads. If the price rises high enough, there is no doubt the natives will send us all they can,-all, that is, that can be transported to the port of shipment, and carried thence to Liverpool, on such terms as to leave a handsome profit when it reaches England. We shall, of course, drain all the districts within practicable distance from the coast.* It is confidently believed by the best-informed merchants that, if prices rise as fast and as far as seems probable, India will this year send us at least a million of bales. And we should indorse this calculation with every feeling of security, were it not precisely the amount promised with confidence by Sir Charles Wood, whose figures are always wrong, and whose confidence is never justified by the result. This quantity, added to about 400,000 bales from other miscellaneous quarters, would insure a total supply of 1,400,000 bales, to meet a calculated requirement of 2,250,000 bales, as above mentioned.

There are, however, certain considerations which may materially modify this calculation, and diminish the figures

The practical difficulty which stands in the way of our obtaining any very large and very sudden increase of supply from India lies in the fact that there exist in the cotton - districts but scanty means of water-conveyance, and that land-carriage, whether by bullocks or by railways, is enormously expensive, especially for so bulky an article as cotton. The present rate by railway in India is about 1d. per ton per mile, and by river nearly 3d. The cost of water-carriage in America (and little else is employed) rarely exceeds d. per ton per mile. The charge on a bale of cotton brought from 500 miles in the interior would therefore be only about 5s. in the United States, while it would vary from 15s. to 30s. in India. Any suddenly augmented supply which we expect from India must in consequence be obtained by thoroughly draining the districts near the coast, and by diverting the usual exports to China, rather than by obtaining any considerable quantities from the remoter fields of the interior. And, accordingly, we find that it was in this way the unusual amount exported in 1857 was procured.

we have named, and which, though conjectural only, must not be overlooked. We are not the sole manufacturing countries of the Old World. France, Switzerland, Austria, and Italy consume large quantities of cotton. Out of 5,000,000 bales used in 1860, it is estimated that Great Britain took 2,500,000, the United States 800,000, and the several countries of Europe 1,700,000. This country is the great emporium where most of the cotton grown is sent, either for consumption or distribution. In ordinary years we reëxport to the Continent considerable quantities of all sorts. We have assumed in the above calculation that, as Great Britain is certainly the best market in the world, and as the importance and imperative necessities of our manufacturing industry are greater than those of any other country, we should be able (under such exceptional circumstances as we are discussing and expecting) to retain for our own use the whole, or nearly the whole, of the cotton we import. Probably, if matters were left to take their natural course, this would be the case, with certain inconsiderable exceptions. At the same time we must bear in mind that countries whose native manufactures are protected by very high duties, or by actual prohibitive tariffs, may be able so to raise the prices of the manufactured article, as to be able to give very high rates for the raw material. People must have a certain amount of cotton-goods, whatever the cost be; and if their government will not let them procure it from abroad, they must employ their own manufacturers to produce it, and must pay them such a remunerative price as will enable them to purchase the raw cotton. We have very lately had a startling reminder of this truth in the circumstance that Boston manufacturers and New-York merchants have actually been purchasing in Liverpool the cotton which they cannot do without, but can no longer procure from New Orleans and Mobile. The quantities are small, no doubt; but the fact is significant enough.

Still, if there were no interference with the operation of natural causes, we should probably be able so far to outbid other countries as to keep most of the arriving cotton for our own consumption. But can we feel confident that there will be no such interference? Scarcely. We have two neighbours and rivals, whose proceedings are sometimes very anomalous, and who are governed by different principles of commercial policy from those adopted by ourselves. It is possible that the United States may resolve upon entirely excluding British cotton-goods by a tariff even more decidedly prohibitive than the present one, and thus virtually giving such a bounty to the New-England manufacturers as shall enable them to give arti