mate of her weakness based upon this reference to her religion and her learning. The Tae-Ping Rebellion lasted from 1850 to 1864 and then was put down only by French and English intervention. During the last quarter of a century, China has lost eight of her best provinces to France, England, Russia and Japan. Within ten years Russia will complete the Trans-Siberian Railway, and the northern borders of China for twenty-four hundred miles will lie open to Russian invasion. In 1894 Japan carried out her ambitious scheme for revenge and conquest; and the civilized world was astonished to find the mighty empire of four million square miles of territory and four hundred million people and four thousand years' duration crumbling before the attack of a nascent empire of a hundred and forty thousand square miles of territory and forty million souls. At once the European nations saw the enormous prize lying helpless before their greed. With human nature as it is, need we wonder that Russia pushed back Japan only to secure a splendid harbor and priceless guarantees for herself, that Germany has already seized part of the coast and that Britain is demanding as much as China has granted to any other nation? If the unity of the empire is preserved at all its preservation will be due to the fact that the jealousy of the great powers prevents an agreement as to how the spoils shall be divided. The yellow race will not be annihilated. The Chinese are the Anglo-Saxons of the Orient, and the Japanese the French. Japan leads Asia to-day as France led Europe in the seventeenth century. But the Chinese will increase in numbers and improve in civilization under the temporary leadership of the western nations. They will presently emerge from their tutelage and become one of the greatest peoples on the earth. I wish the United States might treat China not as an old and decrepit mother but as a young and growing sister. The Chinese will not become the ruling race in the twentieth century. But if China learns Christianity and adopts modern civilization she will come to her Kingdom in the twentyfirst century; and a mighty Kingdom it will prove. Principle and policy unite in prompting the United States to treat China as an older sister would treat a younger sister recently adopted into the household of nations. The rapid growth of armies and navics indicates, I fear, a revival of the military spirit. Hence Russia which has just reached the military stage of civilization, whose army is pronounced by William of Germany the most formidable on the globe, may become the Suzerain of Asia. The contest for the headship of the Eastern continent is between Russia and Great Britain. pean politics revolve around this struggle. Let me illustrate this statement. Euro Last year I asked an editorial writer on a leading London paper why Great Britain did not protect the Armenians? He answered, "Look at India with her two hundred and ninety million souls. Our rule there has been upon the whole beneficent. Even suppose half a million perish from the famine, remember that famine formerly swept them off by the millions; remember also that India has gained fifty million during the last twenty years chiefly by the increase of her population. If we can maintain our ascendancy in India for another half a century, English speech and Christian civilization will become dominant among three hundred million human beings. But an attack upon the Sultan may arouse our Mohammedan subjects in India and their rebellion may enable Russia to supplant us in Asia. We must not imperil the destinies of three hundred million of people in order to insure the religious liberty of a few hundred thousand Armenians." An ed itorial writer on another paper, who was present at the mid-day lunch added "You must remember also that Great Britain now holds two and a half million square miles of territory in Africa, nearly two million miles of which have been acquired since 1870. If we can only retain our possessions on the Dark Continent, we shall soon enjoy a rich trade with her teeming millions, and we shall find there an outlet for our surplus population for at least one hundred years. We must not prejudice the interests of our own posterity for the sake of a few hundred thousand Armenians." Later in the season I was talking with a Russian Consul on the Riviera. I remarked: "Russia could have captured Constantinople, had she overthrown the Sultan in the name of humanity when the massacres occurred last fall; Great Britain would not have attacked you in order to preserve the integrity of Turkey as she did in the Crimean War." "Perhaps we could," he replied, "had we recognized in time the indignation of England over the Turkish massacres; but," he added, "we had our eyes upon a greater prize. Our Trans-Siberian Railway is to be completed in 1904. This will give us the suzerainty of China, enable us to become the controlling power in the Orient, and the strongest Empire upon the globe." We can readily realize that if Russia were to become the Suzerain of Asia, she would by the same act become the over-lord of Europe. We must also recognize a possible danger on the western continent. With the growth of wealth upon the one hand and of a reckless proletariat upon the other, it is possible that the United States may repeat the history of the Roman Republic and lapse into a military despotism. Decadence as well as progress is a phenomenon of our race; and some signs point to a pause if not to a retrogression in our civilization. If the race lapses into the military stage of civilization, then Russia, which is just reaching that stage may become the leader of the world. We do not however, anticipate this solution of the problem. Were civilization indeed, to lapse, Russia would begin her encroachments upon Europe by the assimilation of Austria, Hungary and of Germany. Selfishness, if no higher motive, would then drive these nations to a union with Great Britain, and Russia could not conquer these three peoples united. Russia can not conquer Great Britain alone, unless she greatly increases her navy. But navies cost money, and Great Britain has vastly more available wealth than has Russia. Above all one of two alternatives confronts Russia to-day. She must either conquer modern civilization or yield to it. With the awakening sense of individuality and of personal rights throughout the Empire; with the agitation of the socialists and the anarchists, who are after all in Russia only the John Baptists of political equality, with the extension of railways, telegraphs and modern improvements, with the increased circulation of newspapers and the growth of national literature under the lead of Tolstoi and Sienkeewiecky and with the revival of Bible study and the awakening of consciousness among the common people under the leadership of the Stundists, Russia impresses the onlooker as upon the eve of great social and moral changes. Her millions are rapidly emerging into modern civilization. The traditions and aspirations of her rulers favor progress in all lines save in political and religious freedom. It is absolutely impossible therefore for all Russians to unite in a supreme effort to roll back the tide of modern civilization; the progressive and reactionary elements within the empire will engage in a life and death struggle before Russia leads the world back towards the Dark Ages. Indeed one menace to the peace of Europe lies in the fact that Russia may resort to an external war to escape an internal revolution. But if war is undertaken to escape reform, Russia will not command the support of her most thoughtful and conscientious citizens; and with the loss of her own intellectual and moral leaders, she cannot conquer Great Britain, much less modern civilization. Our Christian-worldly civilization is confronting great problems which will force it gradually to become either more Christian or more worldly. Great Britain and the United States may become rotten before they are ripe. Our civilization may perish by our hands. It will not be overthrown by armies of Russia under the lead of a Slav Napoleon. Own The third solution of this problem lies in such a growth of inventions, such industrial, political and social progress, such intellectual and spiritual development upon the part of the Anglo-Saxon people as will make them leaders of the world-neighborhood. Whether or not this hope is to be realized depends much upon the United States. Looking first to our material resources, we find that the United States with one-twentieth of the population of the globe, now possesses onethird of the wealth of the human race. "The Memorandum" prepared last year by the ablest English statisticians in response to a vote of Parliament, gives the comparative statistics of population, industry and commerce in the United Kingdom and leading foreign countries. This report forecasts the coming industrial supremacy of the United States. From 1870 to 1895 the population of the United Kingdom increased slightly less than one per cent, that of Germany slightly more than one per cent, while that of the United States increased ninety per cent. The writers add that this increase of population in the United States is chiefly urban and industrial rather than agricultural, and foreshadows, not an increase of raw materials for the United Kingdom, but an increase of competition with the United Kingdom. Any one who reads between the lines of this Memorandum will recognize the coming industrial and commercial supremacy of the United States. If we take a little broader outlook we shall find the conclusions of this committee only emphasized. During the past sixty-five years the population of the United Kingdom increased sixtythree per cent, of Germany, seventyfive per cent, of Russia, ninety per cent, and of the United States six hundred and twenty-six per cent. Basing his estimate upon our past growth M. Simeoni, of France, declares that the United States will have a population of one billion souls in the year 2000 A. D. Mr. Gladstone, who wisely anticipated a decreasing rate of growth, nevertheless thought our population would reach six to eight hundred millions before the close of the coming century. With our vast and fertile territory and unsurpassed climate, with our rich and varied resources of ore, coal, oil, timber, etc., and with the most intelligent and energetic people upon the globe the Creator has certainly made it possible for the United States to exercise a potent influence on the world-neighborhood in the twentieth century. Moreover, as Mr. Gladstone pointed out, the exercise of such an influence upon the part of the United States and of the English-speaking peoples of the globe requires no sudden change in the currents of their lives, no preterhuman strength or wisdom, but only an orderly growth, a loyalty to our traditions of freedom and morality, a reasonable advance in living up to the light we already have. The first achievement in civilization which we may look for the United States to accomplish if we pursue a peaceful course of development will be the disbandment of the standing armies of the world. It is simply impossible for European nations to withstand our industrial competition for another quarter of a century with every able young man giving to uncompensated military service the three years in which he should complete his education and begin the mastery of his life task. I trust that the incipient talk of a great permanent army and navy in the United States will end in talk. We ought to keep in permanent military service only a sufficient number of men and ships, to serve as a police force for the Republic and her coasts. When another crisis arises we can buy war ships and raise another army as we are rapidly and efficiently doing to-day. Thoughtful writers like Professor Von Holst and John Fiske foretell the disbandment of European armies as one of the first and noblest results of the peaceful development of the United States. Unless Europe combines in a commercial union against us, our tariff will have attained its object within the next quarter of a century; and the United States will take then the traditional position of the present industrial leader of the world, and will plead for free trade between all nations of the earth. Indeed in the present crisis in Asia, we ought to insist that the market of the Orient shall remain open to the United States. In the interests of moral order, of European peace, and as a friend of China, we ought also to enter an earnest profest against the permanent dismemberment of that great empire. We may further help Europe in securing permanent peace and in disbanding her armies by arbitration treaties with her leading nations. We stupidly rejected such a treaty with the mother country a year or two ago, but thanks be to God, the English and Americans were never so closely united as they are to-day. The United States is not the only force, perhaps not the chief force contributing to the triumph of English speech, of modern civilization, and of Christianity in the world-neighborhood. We have referred to an increase of sixtythree per cent in the population of the United Kingdom between 1830 and 1895, as compared with an increase of ninety per cent in Russia, and of six hundred and twenty-six per cent in the United States. But we must bear in mind that the British colonies during the same period increased five hundred and ten per cent. Great Britain controls 11,000,000 square miles of territory, and 381,000,000 people as compared with Russia's 8,000,000 square miles of territory and 129,000,000 people and our 3,600,000 square miles of territory and 75,000,000 people. Not all the millions of the British Empire speak our tongue; but 120,000,000 people in the world speak English to-day as compared with 35,000,000 in 1830. Those speaking English have increased 85,000,000 in the last 65 years, while those speaking all the other languages of Christendom combined, have increased only 125,000,000. Besides the growth of population during the coming century will take place chiefly in North America, Africa and Australia, which are under the control of English-speaking peoples. Sixsevenths of all the missionary work of the world is done by those whose native speech is English. French and German philologists prophesy that English will become the language of the world. If we will drop from written words all silent letters, invent a few more characters, so that each sound in our alphabet shall be represented by a letter, the realization of this prophecy is certainly within our reach. If those having a common English speech, a common civilization, literature and religion give each other simply moral support, their influence may be decisive in the worldneighborhood. Germany is closely related to us in blood, speech, civilization and religion and she will play no small or unworthy part in the struggles of the twentieth century. If the Anglo-Saxon stock, German, English and American, can overcome its characteristic vice of drunkenness, it will dominate the civilization of the world. If we shall be true to our traditions of freedom, morality and religion—if in a word we shall realize our ideals, our achievements will become the ideals of the race. I cannot close without a word of warning against one danger which threatens us to-day and a few words in regard to our true policy in the present crisis. Mr. Curzon closes his interesting volume on "Problems of the Far East" with the following quotation on the English: "We sailed wherever ship could sail, We founded many a mighty state; Pray God our greatness may not fail Through craven fear of being great." Our danger lies along the line of worldly ambition, which Mr. Curzon encourages. God will surely carry out his plans, and transform the race into veritable children of Himself. Our danger lies in our slowness to foresee the divine plan, in our failure to rely upon moral forces, in our unwillingness to do the unselfish, and brotherly work which God demands of us. It may be that He will again be compelled to use "the foolish things of the world to put to shame them that are wise, and the weak things of the world to put to shame them that are strong, and the things that are not to bring to naught the things that are." Possibly, I sometimes think probably, the final civilization will be ushered in by some children of the Orient more perfectly embodying than we have yet done the Spirit of the Master and thus bringing in without observation the kingdom of heaven on earth. I would change Mr. Curzon's sentiment and sing, We went where ships could never sail, We sowed the seeds of church and state; Pray God our greatness may not fail, We must abandon all talk of revenge, put aside the despicable war cry, “Remember the Maine," and never yield to any dreams of territorial expansion for our own sake. Upon the other hand, we cannot either in a craven spirit or in a selfish spirit give the Philippines back to Spain or leave them without protection. If a gypsy had stolen a child and held it in cruel bondage for a few years and if this child had come into your possession, by some strange providence, would you hand it back to its drunken gypsy kidnapper or even leave it without food and shelter on your door-step? Now that Asia, Africa and Australia have become colonies of Europe, may not God be calling us to show the nations of the world a Christian colonial policy? Hence He may be committing to our care a few islands, too small to awaken our greed, but sufficiently large to enable us to furnish the world an example of helping our younger sisters in Cuba and Hawaii and the Philippines to set up in national house-keeping for themselves, not of attempting to hold them as mere house-maids of the United States. In a word, the Divine Providence has made a "coming out" party for the young Republic of the West. We must not in a cowardly spirit try to dodge our responsibilities among the nations. Above all we must not in a selfish spirit aim to exploit the weaker (?) nations for either the glory or the profiit of the United States. God calls us as He called the Jews of old to moral |