their autocratical government over the remainder. To most of the patriots the future seemed hopeless. It was then that he wrote his famous "prophetic letter," addressed to some unknown friend. It is one of the most remarkable documents in history, not only from the clearness with which he explained the motives of the revolutionists and the reasons for the reverses they had suffered, but because of the wonderful accuracy with which he predicted the course of the struggle for independence, the final triumph, and the events that happened during the subsequent half century.

"It is difficult for me, or for any one else, to predict exactly the future condition of the New World, state the policy that it will pursue, or even prophesy the forms of government which will be adopted in it. I consider the state of America, just at this moment, to be about the same as the state of Europe, when, upon the fall of the Roman Empire, each detached section constituted itself separately, according to its own interests or its geographical situation or perhaps the individual ideas or ambition of political leaders. But in spite of these difficulties," Bolivar added that he would venture "a kind of guess about the future of America, mere conjecture," he said, "which at once I admit to be arbitrary, and dictated more by a reasonable desire than by probable reasoning."

The internal discussions and civil strife which he foresaw, and of which he had already no inconsiderable experience, found in his mind an easy explanation, in the fact that "the position in which the inhabitants of the American continent had been held for centuries had been purely passive, that they had been kept completely unacquainted with political life, and reduced to a state lower than slavery, which rendered it more difficult for them to raise themselves to the enjoyment of liberty." "Besides being deprived," he said, "of the rights

which belonged to us, we were left, as far as public matters are concerned, in a state of permanent infancy and in regard to matters of state, and to the science of administration of the government, we found ourselves as if absent, or cut off, from the rest of the world." . . And now 66 we see our

selves called upon, suddenly, without any previous preparation, and what is more to be lamented, without any practical knowledge of public affairs, to act on the stage of the world the eminent part of legislators, judges, financiers, diplomatists, and generals, and to exercise authority in all degrees, from the supreme to the most subaltern position, filling all the offices which constitute the hierarchy of a well-regulated state.

. . Can it be expected that we may at once be able to keep the scale at its just equilibrium, and fulfil without difficulty the arduous task of conducting a republican government? Can it be imagined that a people, whose chains have just been broken, will enter the life of liberty, without being liable, like a new Icarus, to see its wings melted and to fall into the abyss? Such a prodigy would be inconceivable: and no reasoning or desire can ever induce us to entertain such hope."

The Liberator thought that Mexico would be a republic, with a tendency to a personal form of government, wherein the executive would be invested with great power, and where the stability of the institutions would depend primarily on the character of the individual into whose hands the management of public affairs would be placed.

"The states of the Isthmus of Panama," he said, “will form perhaps a union. That magnificent portion of America, situated between the two oceans, will be in due time the emporium of the universe. Its canals will shorten the distance which separates the nations of the earth, and will render the commercial ties which connect Europe, America, and Asia, closer and stronger. The yieldings of the four parts

of the earth will be brought as a tribute to that happy section of the world. Perhaps the true capital of the earth might be established there, and be made exactly what Constantine desired that Byzance should be.

"New Granada may be united to Venezuela; and if they can agree to centralize their governments and form a republic, their capital must be Maracaibo, or, if not, a new city, which might be called Las Casas, in honor of that hero of philanthropy, and could be founded with advantage at the magnificent port of Bahia Honda, on the dividing line of the two countries. The government of this republic will be shaped on the same plan as the British government, with the only difference that instead of a king the nation shall have at her head a chief executive magistrate, elected by the people, a hereditary senate, which in all political storms, may interpose itself between the popular waves and the executive and a popular house, consisting of members freely elected by the people. But if New Granada does not consent to form with Venezuela a central government the state formed by herself alone may be very happy and prosperous, because of the immense resources which she possesses.

arm

"We know very little of what is going on in Buenos Aires but judging by appearances the government will be centralized, and the military element will prevail in it, owing to its dissensions at home, and its wars abroad. It is possible for said government to degenerate into an oligarchy, or a more or less restricted monarchy, under some name which no one can guess. I have to say, however, that such result would be deplorable to the extreme, because the people of that country are entitled to splendid glory.

"The kingdom of Chile is called by nature, by its situation, by the habits and customs of its inhabitants, and by the

example of its neighbors, the proud republicans of Arauco, to enjoy the blessings of just laws and republican institutions. If any republic is to last long in America, I am inclined to think that that one will be Chile. The spirit of liberty has never been extinguished there, and the vices of Europe and Asia will never come, or will come very late, to corrupt the habits of that remote corner of the universe. Its territory is limited, and always will be free from the infectious contact of the rest of mankind; its laws and usages will not be easily changed; the uniformity of its political and religious ideas will be preserved; and in a word, Chile will be free.

แ Peru, on the contrary, has two elements which are thoroughly inimical to any kind of just and liberal system of government-gold and slaves. The former corrupts all things; the latter is itself already corrupted and rotten.

"From all the above stated the following conclusions can be easily reached. First: the American provinces now fighting for independence will succeed in securing it. Second: some of them will become in a regular way federal republics, where centralization will prevail; but monarchies will be founded, almost unavoidably, in those whose area is more extensive. Third: some of the new nations will be unhappy enough to exhaust in revolutions their great resources, rendering the establishment of a great monarchy difficult, and the establishment of a great republic impossible.

"It is a grand idea to try to make out of the whole New World only one nation, united by strong bonds, firmly connecting all its sections with each other and with the whole. As it has the same origin, the same language, the same habits, the same religion, it might have the same government, ruling over the different confederated states. But such a thing is an impossibility, because remote climates, different situations, conflicting interests, dissimilar characters, divide America. How

beautiful would it be that the Isthmus of Panama should become for us what the Corinthian Isthmus was for the Greeks. Would to God that some day we may be fortunate enough to establish an august Congress of Representatives of the Republics, Kingdoms, and Empires of America, which will deal with the high interests of peace and of war between this continent and the other three parts of the world. An assembly of this kind may possibly be held at some future time, and mark a happy stage in the history of our progress. All other expectations are unfounded."